Outlook: Corn prices remain on the defensive after a neutral December WASDE report. No major changes were made to the U.S. corn balance sheet in this week’s report and, except for dry weather in Argentina, all other fundamentals remain bearish. Some technical indicators and recent fund activity may give way to a mild rally, but the long-term trend for corn is still down.
Outlook: March corn futures are lodged in a pattern of lower, range bound trading and are hanging only a few cents above life-of-contract lows. The soy complex’s excitement over dryness in Argentina has failed to impress – or even interest – corn bulls, leaving few factors left to move prices higher. U.S. exports are in competition with South America, though rising freight rates may give exporters additional opportunities.
Outlook: March corn futures are in a bearish trend and can’t seem to find much bullish news. U.S. exports are lagging both last year’s pace and that needed to reach USDA’s projections. Meanwhile, USDA issued an early 2018 corn market forecast that kept production near this year’s level. The story continues to be that the world is awash in corn with few prospects for boosting demand or cutting supplies.
Outlook: December corn futures remain under mild bearish pressure and have made two new contract lows since last week’s WASDE report. The selling pressure isn’t tremendous, but there is little buying interest to keep prices from heading lower. Exports continue to disappoint, and ethanol production is one of the few bright spots left in the corn market.
Outlook: Today’s WASDE report was just another in a long string of bearish corn market reports. The report featured growing U.S. ending stocks, a record-high U.S. corn yield, and 147 million bushels of extra corn in ending stocks. Moreover, world production and ending stocks were also revised higher in today’s report. The news has all but sealed corn’s bearish fate for the year.
Outlook: The week’s most notable news for the corn market came Thursday as USDA announced the sale of 1.3 MMT of corn to Mexico. The sale included 845,000 MT during the 2017/18 marketing year and 510,000 MT for the 2018/19 marketing year. The report ranked #10 on USDA’s Top 10 Daily Export Sales report, with other sales to Mexico holding three of the top ten spots.
Outlook: The delayed U.S. corn harvest has commensurately delayed hedge pressure in the market, leaving traders, farmers, and agribusinesses largely directionless in anticipating prices. There is a growing feeling that harvest-time lows should have already been established and that prices should begin a slow grind higher soon. However, with only 38 percent of U.S. corn harvested (and, presumably, a similarly low number hedged), there is also a growing expectation that farmer hedge selling will pick up soon and pressure prices further.
Outlook: December corn futures defied the bearish fundamentals in the October WASDE for a few days, buoyed by spillover buying from the soybean market. Ultimately, however, corn’s own fundamentals caught up with the market, sending it slowly lower. The contract is range bound (again) with support from commercial value-buying and pressure from bearish global fundamentals.
Outlook: Trading on the October WASDE’s release day was interesting, to say the least. Traders were bracing for a bearish report – so much so that that December corn futures put in a new life-of-contract low before the report’s release. Typically, the market does not make such technically or psychologically important moves until after USDA releases the report. Today, however, per-report expectations turned out to be more bearish than the report itself.
Outlook: About all one can say for corn futures is that they’re still there, dutifully providing price discovery and risk management options. Unfortunately, there just doesn’t seem to be much risk to manage. Trading volumes have been very light with little fundamental news to encourage position taking. Traders appear to be waiting for better harvest yield information before making judgements on corn’s supply and demand situation.