Market Perspectives January 18, 2018

Outlook: Last Friday’s WASDE was certainly bearish the corn market. The USDA increased 2017/18 corn production by 26 million bushels to 14.604 billion. The additional production came on the back of a decrease in harvested area (from 83.1 million acres to 82.7) and a 1.1 bushel/acre increase in yield (from 175.4 to 176.5). Feed and residual use was decreased 25 million bushels and no other consumption variables were increased in the balance sheet. The combination of these factors increased ending stocks 40 million bushels (2 percent) to 2.477 billion. 

Market Perspectives January 11, 2018

Outlook: March corn is trading sideways in a comfortable range near $3.50, waiting for tomorrow’s USDA reports. Tomorrow’s reports, however, aren’t expected to produce major changes to the U.S. or world balance sheets. If that is the case, corn will be relegated to continue its slow, sideways trade until U.S. planting prospects are better determined. 

Market Perspectives January 4, 2018

Outlook: March corn refuses to leave the safety of its narrow range around $3.50/bushel. Two holiday-shortened trading weeks in a row, combined with little fresh news, have left the contract decidedly range bound. The holidays created a lack of fundamental news and next week’s January WASDE isn’t likely to show major changes to the U.S. corn balance sheet. Until some new information is gathered, corn seems relegated to its current sideways pattern. 

Market Perspectives December 21, 2017

Outlook: March corn has been in a consolidation pattern around the $3.50 mark and today was no exception. The contract finished 2 cents higher and just above $3.51 as traders perceive such prices to be near the market’s fair value. Without much bullish or bearish news to push trading one way or another, trading activity continues to lighten ahead of the holidays. There is some position squaring ahead of the holidays with shorts seemingly always nervous about leaving their position on over the Christmas/New Year period. 

Market Perspectives December 14, 2017

Outlook: Corn prices remain on the defensive after a neutral December WASDE report. No major changes were made to the U.S. corn balance sheet in this week’s report and, except for dry weather in Argentina, all other fundamentals remain bearish. Some technical indicators and recent fund activity may give way to a mild rally, but the long-term trend for corn is still down. 

Market Perspectives December 7, 2017

Outlook: March corn futures are lodged in a pattern of lower, range bound trading and are hanging only a few cents above life-of-contract lows. The soy complex’s excitement over dryness in Argentina has failed to impress – or even interest – corn bulls, leaving few factors left to move prices higher. U.S. exports are in competition with South America, though rising freight rates may give exporters additional opportunities. 

Market Perspectives November 30, 2017

Outlook: March corn futures are in a bearish trend and can’t seem to find much bullish news. U.S. exports are lagging both last year’s pace and that needed to reach USDA’s projections. Meanwhile, USDA issued an early 2018 corn market forecast that kept production near this year’s level. The story continues to be that the world is awash in corn with few prospects for boosting demand or cutting supplies.

Market Perspectives November 16, 2017

Outlook: December corn futures remain under mild bearish pressure and have made two new contract lows since last week’s WASDE report. The selling pressure isn’t tremendous, but there is little buying interest to keep prices from heading lower. Exports continue to disappoint, and ethanol production is one of the few bright spots left in the corn market. 

Market Perspectives November 9, 2017

Outlook: Today’s WASDE report was just another in a long string of bearish corn market reports. The report featured growing U.S. ending stocks, a record-high U.S. corn yield, and 147 million bushels of extra corn in ending stocks. Moreover, world production and ending stocks were also revised higher in today’s report. The news has all but sealed corn’s bearish fate for the year. 

Market Perspectives November 2, 2017

Outlook: The week’s most notable news for the corn market came Thursday as USDA announced the sale of 1.3 MMT of corn to Mexico. The sale included 845,000 MT during the 2017/18 marketing year and 510,000 MT for the 2018/19 marketing year. The report ranked #10 on USDA’s Top 10 Daily Export Sales report, with other sales to Mexico holding three of the top ten spots.