Market Profile - China

China Market Snapshot

Supply/Demand Basics

  • World’s 2nd largest corn producer and consumer.
  • World’s largest swine, aqua, and egg producer, 2nd largest poultry meat and growing dairy and beef producer.
  • World’s largest sorghum and DDGS importer in recent years, but imports are declining due to protectionist policies.

Country Overview

  • Population: 1.374 billion
  • Population growth: 0.43%
  • Urban %: 55.6%
  • Urban growth: 3.05%
  • GDP: $19.39 trillion
  • GDP growth: 6.9%
  • GDP per capita: $14,100
  • Economic growth slowing but continues to be strong, Slowing economic growth not expected to have large effect on consumption growth.
  • Urban residents consume more animal protein than their rural counterparts, and urbanization is expected to grow from 50 percent to 70 percent in 10 years.
  • China’s per capita animal protein consumption is still well below more developed Asian economies, and there is substantial room for animal protein dema nd to grow.

Trade and Market Share Issues

  • Meat and dairy consumption is well below Asian neighbors and is expected to continue growing as incomes grow and urbanization expands, which will increase demand for feed grains.
  • In recent years, China is the largest importer of U.S. DDGS and sorghum and a large potential importer of U.S. corn, barley and ethanol.

Policy Issues

  • China’s has built up large, government-held corn stocks. China is currently using protectionist policy to help draw down these stocks, including large anti-dumping duties on U.S. DDGS. Policies to reduce feed grain imports are expected to continue until large corn stocks are drawn down, which could take 3-5 years.  China’s 13th 5-year plan is committed to greater openness to world markets for feed grain, but opposition to this policy is strong and progress in implementing it has been, and will continue to be, unsteady.
  • China’s Ministry of Agriculture officially embraces biotechnology, but many consumers and other stakeholders are still skeptical and progress toward greater acceptance is slow.
  • China’s policy toward ethanol is also at a crossroad, with some advocating expanded use and others opposed to ethanol due to either oil interests or food/fuel concerns.
  • Livestock production growth is constrained by environmental implications and policies.
China Supply Demand